Monthly FX Bulletin – October 2025

October 29, 2025 edition of the TCP / VNCFX FX bulletin. The real was up 14.8% for the year and the Ibovespa 22.7%. In Brazil, it highlights August's rise in the IBC-Br activity index, the income-tax exemption raised to R$5,000, the license for Petrobras to drill in the Foz do Amazonas basin ahead of COP30 and signs of rapprochement between Trump and Lula. It argues that the Central Bank's pause keeps the carry trade attractive and the dollar below R$5.40, but that the real's appreciation is tactical, not structural, and depends on a fiscal anchor and reforms.