Monthly FX Bulletin – March 2025

March 14, 2025 edition of the TCP / VNCFX FX bulletin, covering February. The real reached R$5.67 per dollar on February 18 on foreign inflows and carry trades, but returned to R$5.90 by month-end. The document highlights February's IPCA-15 (1.23%, the highest for the month since 2016), the Selic at 13.25% with another hike expected, the Prosecutor General's charges against Jair Bolsonaro and Trump's tariffs. It flags risks of emerging-market contagion, a US recession and fiscal deterioration, and urges pragmatism: hedge against volatility and use the real's strength to diversify assets.