Monthly FX Bulletin – April 2025

April 24, 2025 edition of the TCP / VNCFX FX bulletin, covering March. Its focus is the US tariff shock in Trump's first 100 days, with tariffs of up to 125% on China and a 90-day pause for other countries, which weakened the dollar and reshaped global risk. Brazil benefited: the real reached about R$5.62 in early April, with interest rates near 15% and a chance to attract nearshoring flows. The bulletin warns, however, of 5.48% inflation, fiscal weakness, populist measures ahead of 2026 and the risk of capital flows reversing.