2025 Projections

TCP Partners' macroeconomic projections sheet, updated January 10, 2025, with data for 2021–2023, an estimate for 2024 and forecasts for 2025 and 2026. TCP expected GDP growth to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with agriculture recovering (4.0% in 2025 after a 4.8% decline), industry at 1.5% and services at 2.1%. For 2025 it forecast IPCA inflation of 6.4%, IGP-M of 7.0%, a year-end Selic of 14.50% and an average dollar of R$6.14; for 2026, IPCA of 5.2%, a Selic of 12.00% and an average dollar of R$6.28. Sources: Central Bank, FGV and IBGE.