Monthly FX Bulletin – September 2024

Monthly FX bulletin from TCP Partners with VNCFX (“The Long View”), dated September 30, 2024, with August highlights. It explains why the real stayed near record lows, down 13.4% against the dollar for the year, even with stocks near all-time highs: the unwinding of the yen carry trade, widening fiscal deficits (debt at 78.5% of GDP), Gabriel Galípolo's nomination to the Central Bank, the pace of Fed cuts and the clash between Elon Musk and Brazil's Supreme Court. It also notes positives such as solid GDP and low unemployment, and recalls that spells of real strength tend to be short.