Monthly FX Bulletin – July 2025

July 25, 2025 edition of the TCP / VNCFX FX bulletin, covering June. The highlight is the 50% tariff Donald Trump announced on Brazilian imports, which the bulletin sees as a political gift to Lula ahead of 2026. It also analyzes Congress's reversal of the IOF tax increase and the government's appeal to the Supreme Court, which deepens tension between the branches of government. Even so, the real hit a nine-month high (R$5.40), with R$25.2 billion of foreign money in Brazilian stocks this year and expectations of US rate cuts. The recommendation is to review hedging strategies, especially for importers.