08/12/2025
Monthly FX Bulletin – August 2025
TCP / VNCFX
August 12, 2025 edition of the TCP / VNCFX FX bulletin, covering July. It describes the escalating Brazil-US dispute: a 50% tariff, a threat of 100%, revoked visas for Supreme Court justices and possible Brazilian retaliation, while China approved 183 new Brazilian coffee exporters. It also records the Supreme Court ruling that upheld the IOF tax increase. With the Selic at 15% and Fed cuts in sight, the interest-rate differential supports the real in the short term, but the bulletin warns that fiscal weakness, rooted in spending, is the silent threat to the currency.
